Food Demand Survey (FooDS) - February 2015

The newest release of the Feed Demand Survey (FooDS) is now out.

Compared to last month, we found 8% to 15% jumps in willingness-to-pay (WTP) for both beef products (steak and hamburger) and for deli ham.  There was also a sizable increase (9%) in spending on food away from home relative to last month.  

Following up on all the controversy surrounding last month's question on DNA labeling, we delved into the issue again, but this time in a slightly different way.  First, we asked the question in isolation (on a single page by itself), rather than in a list with other food policy issues (Ben Lillie had argued in a blog post following our last result our result was at least partially due tot he fact that the DNA label issue appeared in a list with other issues).  Secondly, the question was reworded so that it was clear that the label was meant to indicate the presence absence of DNA.  The precise wording was, "Do you support or oppose mandatory labels on foods that would indicate the presence or absence of DNA?"  The choice options were support or oppose (the order of which was randomized across respondents). We found essentially the same result as before, 83.5% of respondents supported DNA labeling (note: sample size is 1,001, sampling error is +/-3%, sample weighted to match the population demographics).   

I also looked at the demographic breakdown of those who answered support vs. oppose.  For those who supported, 43%  had a college degree, 49% were female, 46% were Democrats, and 20% were Republications; for those who opposed, 58% had a college degree, 45% were female, 38% were Democrats, and 28% were Republicans. Education and political party affiliation appear to be partial drivers of support for DNA labeling.

Then, on a following page, we asked a number of true/false questions to gauge people's knowledge about DNA, genetics, etc.

Most respondents, 64.6%, correctly knew it was false that "ordinary tomatoes do not contain genes while genetically modified tomatoes do."  However, a remarkably high number of respondents, 52%, said it was false that "all vegetables contain DNA", and only 58.6% that it was true that "yeast for brewing beer contains living organisms." 

DNA labels

Last week's release of the Food Demand Survey (FooDS) has probably generated as much attention as anything I've put out on this blog.  From my perspective, its hard to know why - I've had longer, more insightful posts, and I've shown similar results in the past (e.g., that people desire avoiding ethylene as much as GMOs).  Part of that just goes to show what a few serendipitous retweets will do for web traffic.  

The issue garnering the attention is the question I added to this month's FooDS asking people (N=1,015; nationwide; demographically weighted to match US population) whether they supported or opposed 10 different food policies.  I was mainly interested in how people responded to the question on mandatory calorie labels on restaurant menus, because that issue has been in the news much of late given the release of the FDA's final rule (and because of the prior research I've worked on with Brenna Ellison on the topic).  But, I often think asking about a single issue in isolation, without much context, isn't particularly insightful.  What's often more interesting are the relative comparisons against other policy issues (or changes over time, which is the main focus of many of the FooDS questions).  Thus, the questions on GMOs, and the question that sparked the most interest: mandatory labels on foods containing DNA.

A few comments.  I do not interpret answers to these sorts of questions as necessarily reflecting some sort of deeply held beliefs, but rather they often represent quick, gut reactions.  As the ballot initiatives in California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have shown, mandatory GMO labels initially poll at very high levels (at levels similar to what we found in the recent survey), but in all four of those states, labeling failed to garner 50% of the vote.  Clearly, many people's views about mandatory GMO labeling are not fixed constructs, but are (at least at this point) somewhat malleable and are open to education and persuasion.  As such, I do not believe polls of this sort provide "the" answer on whether a policy should pass/fail, but rather provide initial insights for where the conversation will begin.  

There also seemed to be some insinuation that I "tricked" respondents or that the question was leading.  I have a hard time seeing it (were 61% of respondents also led to say that they opposed sugar soda taxes?).  The order of the items was randomized across respondents.  As some commentators have pointed out, the question on DNA labels probably could have been better worded.  It's worded as saying "mandatory labels on foods containing DNA."  So, let's say that you know a lot of foodstuff contains DNA and you want labels on, say, nutritional content, then it could be that you'd say "support" not because you find DNA worrisome but because you want nutritional labels.  I doubt that's how most people interpreted the question, but it's a possibility.  There is ample evidence that the public doesn't understand much about genetics.  For example, back in 1999 in a paper in Science, Gaskell et al. asked true/false questions of the sort, "Ordinary tomatoes do not contain genes while genetically modified tomatoes do."  This question has been repeated in many subsequent surveys, and it is often found that many people (incorrectly) say "true".  

I'd be careful about saying this means that people are not smart enough to make their own food decisions (I've written extensively on the topic of paternalism).  I think it mainly implies people don't much need to think about such issues (i.e., they don't have an incentive to think carefully about the issue).  Nonetheless, as I've noted about Kaheman's work, it should make us wary of the availability entrepreneur.  

Finally, I'll noted that I've seen several thoughtful comments on my latest survey.  See, for example, Ilya Somin at the Washington Post or Robbie Gonzalez at i09.        

Food Demand Survey (FooDS) - January 2015

The latest edition of the Food Demand Survey (FooDS) is now out.

We saw falls in consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for beef and pork products this month, and a slight uptick in WTP for chicken.  Expected prices and spending patterns remained similar to last month.

Concern for all food issues rose, notably for bird flu and swine flu.  Consumers noticed fewer stories about GMOs in the news this month compared to last.

We also added three new ad hoc questions this month.  

The first question asked: “Do you support or oppose the following government policies?”
86.5% of respondents support mandatory country of origin labels for meat. A large majority (82%) support mandatory labels on GMOs, but curiously about the same amount (80%) also support mandatory labels on foods containing DNA. The least popular policies were bans on transfats, bans on sales of marijuana, and a tax on sugared sodas. Only about 39% of respondents supported a sugared soda tax. 

Secondly, participants were asked “Did you read any books about food and agriculture in the past year?”   Just over 16% of participants stated that they had read a book related to food and agriculture in the past year.  About 81% answered “No”, and 3% answered “I don’t know”.

Those who answered “Yes” were asked: “What is the title of the most recent book you read about food and agriculture?” The vast majority of responses were of the form “I don’t remember” or “cannot recall”. Fast Food Nation, Food Inc., and Omnivore’s Dilemma were each mentioned about three times. The Farmer’s Almanac and Skinny Bitch were mentioned twice. One respondent mentioned the bible. 

Addendum:  Given the interest in this survey, I've added a subsequent post with more detail and discussion.

Food Demand Survey (FooDS) - December 2014

The December 2014 edition of the Food Demand Survey (FooDS) is now out.

Results suggest steady to slightly increasing demand for most meat products this month compared to last, particularly for steak.  Awareness of various controversial issues in the media was similar to last month, but was, across the board, compared to this time last year.  

Three new ad hoc questions were added to the survey this month.  

The first question asked: “Scientists are currently working to develop food products that might become available in the future.  If it were possible, would you be willing to eat or drink the following foods?” Respondents were asked to select “Yes, I would eat/drink this”, “No, I would not eat/drink this”, or “I don’t know” for each item. 

64.81% of respondents stated they would be willing to eat rice with a higher level of vitamin A.  Just under half the respondents stated they would eat an apple that does not turn brown after peeling and they would drink milk in a carton that changes color according to freshness.  Only about 20% of respondents said they’d eat a hamburger from meat grown in a lab, eat a pizza from a 3D food printer, or eat a protein bar made with insect flour.

The results are similar to those from a Pew Foundation poll conducted earlier this year, which posed the following, "Here are some things that people might be able to do in the next 50 years. For each, tell me if this were possible, would YOU PERSONALLY do this... ".  For the item "Eat meat that was grown in a lab" 20% said they would, 78% said they wouldn't, and 2% said "don't know" (in their phone survey, "don't know" wasn't mentioned as an explicit option, it has to be volunteered by the respondent". 

Secondly, participants were asked “Thinking about the future, which of the following food and agriculture challenges are you most concerned about?” Participants were shown nine items (randomly ordered across respondents) and were asked to rank these items from most to least concerned.  The rankings were used in a statistical model to estimate scores for each issue that sum up to 100%.  The issue of largest concern was “Having affordable food for me and my family,” with a concern score of 23.3%.  By contrast, the issue of least concern was “Inequitable distribution of food throughout the world.”  Affordable food was 23.3/8.1= 2.87 times more important than inequitable distribution.  The second and third most concerning issues were “Changing the type and quantity of food eaten to address obesity, diabetes, and heart disease” and “Producing enough food to meet the demands of a growing world population.”

Immediately following the previous question, participants were asked “Several challenges facing the food and agricultural sector were mentioned in the previous question.  Which of the two following option do you believe would be most effective in addressing the challenges you thought were most concerning?”  76.23% of respondents chose the option that stated “adopting a more ‘natural’ agricultural production system – more local, organic unprocessed crops and food” would be most effective in addressing these challenges.  Only 23.77% chose the other option which read: “adopt a more ‘technological’ agricultural system – more innovation, science, and research in crops and food”.  I must say I'm a bit depressed by this last finding.

Food Demand Survey (FooDS) - November 2014

The latest edition of our Food Demand Survey (FooDS) is now out.

This month, consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for all food products (except steak, which was essentially unchanged) was up relative to October.  

Consumers continue to expect higher meat prices in the coming month (but not quite as much as last month).  Planned purchases of chicken were up relative to last month.

Three new ad hoc questions were added to the survey this month. Given the recent WTO ruling on the US mandatory country of origin labeling law (COOL) (see some discussion of the issues here), several questions were added to gauge consumers' knowledge and perceptions of different meat origin labels (thanks to Glynn Tonsor at K-State who provided suggestions on the questions).  

The first question asked: “Which of the following are grocery stores required by law to label for fresh meat products?” Participants were shown seven issues and were asked to select “required”,” not required”, or “I don’t know”, for each issue.  

64% of respondents believe nutritional content information is required to be labeled by law.  Over a third (39%) thought there was mandatory labeling for use of hormones.  For the remaining five issues, the plurality of consumers chose “I don’t know.”  This includes the three issues related to MCOOL.  About 40% of consumers did not know whether grocery stores required to label where an animal was born, raised, or slaughtered.  More consumers than not thought grocery stores were not required to label such origin information.  Only 22% of consumers thought grocery stores were required to label where an animal was born.   

Secondly, (and only after answering the preceding question), participants were asked: “What portion of pork products consumed in the United States is covered by current mandatory country of origin labeling laws?” The plurality, 23.79% of participants, responded saying that 40% to 59% of pork products consumed in the United Sates is covered under mandatory country of origin (COOL) laws.  17% though no pork products were required to be labeled, and about 12% though all pork products were required to be labeled.

he third question pertains to consumer’s willingness-to-pay for a 12oz boneless rib eye beef steak dependent on the country of origin. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of four groups that differed in the label given to the ribeye steak.  On fourth of participants were asked: “ What is the most you would be willing to pay for a 12oz boneless rib eye beef steak that was labelled as: Born, Raised, and Slaughtered in the U.S.?”  Other respondents answered similar questions except the labels were changed to: Born in Canada, Raised and Slaughtered in U.S.; Born and Raised in Canada, Slaughtered in the U.S.; or Product of Canada and the U.S.  Respondents answered by clicking a response category with a range of dollar values such as, $0, $0.01 to $2.99, . . ., $13.00 to $15.99, $16 or more.  Answers were used to estimate the mean WTP for each of the four groups.

Results indicate consumers valued beef that was born or born and raised in Canada $0.89 and $1.05 less, respectively, than beef that was born, raised, and slaughtered in the U.S.  Consumers do not distinguish between beef born in Canada and born and raised in Canada; the difference in WTP for these two labels ($6.11 vs. $5.95) is not statistically different.  Mean WTP for the label “product of Canada and the U.S.”, $6.55,  is higher than the other labels that mentioned Canada and only $0.45 lower than “Born, Raised and Slaughtered in the U.S.”, a difference that is not statistically different.